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Hudson Valley communities can plan for the new normal: more frequent and intense flooding, heat and drought

 

 

 

 

 

 

New York's climate is changing faster than national and global averages.  The projections include air temperature, precipitation, heat wave, sea level rise and flood projections from now through year 2100, in the Hudson River region. The report delineates climate projections by region. These projections cover the two Hudson Valley regions: Region 2 (west of the Hudson River) and Region 5 (east of the Hudson River and the Mohawk River region). Region 2 covers Delaware, Greene, Orange, Schoharie, Sullivan, Rockland, and Ulster counties, and Region 5 covers Albany, Columbia, Dutchess, Fulton, Herkimer, Madison, Montgomery, Oneida, Putnam, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady, Washington, and Westchester counties.

CLIMATE PROJECTIONS FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION

AIR TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS FOR REGION 2

  Baseline                1971-2000 2020s 2050s 2080s 2100
Annual average air temperature 48˚F 52.2 - 53.1˚F 54.2 - 56.1˚F 55.4 - 59.6˚F 56.2 - 61.2˚F
Increase in annual average -  2.2 - 3.1˚F 4.2 - 6.1˚F 5.4 - 9.6˚F 6.2 - 11.2˚F
           

AIR TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS FOR REGION 5

  Baseline            1971-2000 2020s 2050s 2080s 2100
Annual average air temperature 50˚F 52.3 - 53.2˚F 54.5 - 56.2˚F 55.6 - 59.7˚F 56.1 - 61.4˚F
Increase in annual average -  2.3 - 3.2˚F 4.5 - 6.2˚F 5.6 - 9.7˚F 6.1 - 11.4˚F
           

PRECIPITATION PROJECTIONS FOR REGION 2

  Baseline            1971-2000 2020s 2050s 2080s 2100
Total annual precipitation 48" 48.5" - 52" 49.5" - 53.5" 51" - 54.5" 48.5" - 56.5"
% Increase in annual precipitation - 1 - 8% 3 - 11% 6 - 14% 1 - 18%
# Days with precipitation > 1" 12 12 - 13 13 - 14 13 - 15 *
# Days with precipitation > 2" 2 2 2 - 3 2 - 3 *
           

PRECIPITATION PROJECTIONS FOR REGION 5

  Baseline            1971-2000 2020s 2050s 2080s 2100
Total annual precipitation 51" 52" - 54.5" 53" - 57" 53.5" - 58.5" 53.5" to 61.5"
% Increase in annual precipitation - 2 - 7% 4 - 12% 5 - 15% 5 - 21%
# Days with precipitation > 1" 10 14 - 15 14 - 16 15 - 17 *
# Days with precipitation > 2" 1 3 - 4 4 4 - 5 *
           

HEAT WAVE PROJECTIONS FOR REGION 2

  Baseline            1971-2000 2020s 2050s 2080s 2100
# Days per year above 90˚F 12 19 - 25 31 - 47 38 - 77 *
# Days per year above 95˚F 2 2 - 5 5 - 12 7 - 28 *
# Heat waves per year 2 3 4 - 6 5 - 9 *
Average # days of each heat wave 4 5 5 - 6 5 - 7 *
# Days per year ≤ 32˚F 138 108 - 116 86 - 100 65 - 89 *
           

HEAT WAVE PROJECTIONS FOR REGION 5

  Baseline            1971-2000 2020s 2050s 2080s 2100
# Days per year above 90˚F 10 26 - 31 39 - 52 44 - 76 *
# Days per year above 95˚F 1 2 - 4 3 - 10 6 - 25 *
# Heat waves per year 1 3 - 4 5 - 7 6 - 9 *
Average # days of each heat wave 4 5 5 - 6 5 - 7 *
# Days per year ≤ 32˚F 155 127 - 136 104 - 119 84 - 109 *
           

SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTIONS FOR THE HUDSON

  Baseline      1971-2000 2020s 2050s 2080s 2100
Mid-Hudson region - 1 - 9" 5 - 27" 10 - 54" 11 - 71"
NYC/Lower Hudson region - 2 - 10" 8 - 30" 13 - 58" 15 - 75"
           

FLOOD PROJECTIONS FOR COASTAL NY

  Baseline            1971-2000 2020s 2050s 2080s 2100
Increase in probability of 100-year flood 0% 20 - 50% 70 - 190% 140 - 610% *
Flood height of 100-year flood 15' 15.3 - 15.7' 15.9 - 16.8' 16.5 - 18.3' *

*Projections not available at this time

Please note that the federally-designated “100-year” or 1% floodplain is the area that statistically has a 1% chance of flooding each year, based on historical data. Compounded over a 30-year period, this storm has over a 25%, or one in four chance of happening, so using the term “100-year” storm is misleading and gives a false sense of security.

The projections are taken from Responding to Climate Change in New York State CimAID Report written in 2011 and updated in 2014.  New York State officially adopted sea-level rise projections in 2017 for consideration in future planning, permitting and funding programs. You can download a PDF version of these projections and our Climate Summary for Communities to learn more about climate hazards, risks and opportunities Hudson Valley municipalities face.