HOW HAS THE CLIMATE CHANGED IN OUR REGION?
Here in New York State, we are experiencing changes faster than the national and global average**
As solar radiation warms the Earth the planet begins to radiate heat. Certain gases, called greenhouse gases (GHGs), trap some of this heat in the lower atmosphere. Human activities that release GHGs, like burning fossil fuels, are elevating the concentrations of these and warming the planet. This global warming is affecting climate nationally and around the world.
WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?
Hudson Valley communities can plan for the new normal: more frequent and intense flooding, heat and drought
Climate projections for the Hudson Valley region
New York's climate is changing faster than national and global averages. The projections include air temperature, precipitation, heat wave, sea level rise and flood projections from now through year 2100, in the Hudson River region. The report delineates climate projections by region. These projections cover the two Hudson Valley regions: Region 2 (west of the Hudson River) and Region 5 (east of the Hudson River and the Mohawk River region). Region 2 covers Delaware, Greene, Orange, Schoharie, Sullivan, Rockland, and Ulster counties, and Region 5 covers Albany, Columbia, Dutchess, Fulton, Herkimer, Madison, Montgomery, Oneida, Putnam, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady, Washington, and Westchester counties.
AIR TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS FOR REGION 2 |
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Baseline 1971-2000 | 2020s | 2050s | 2080s | 2100 | |
Annual average air temperature | 48˚F | 52.2 - 53.1˚F | 54.2 - 56.1˚F | 55.4 - 59.6˚F | 56.2 - 61.2˚F |
Increase in annual average | - | 2.2 - 3.1˚F | 4.2 - 6.1˚F | 5.4 - 9.6˚F | 6.2 - 11.2˚F |
AIR TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS FOR REGION 5 |
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Baseline 1971-2000 | 2020s | 2050s | 2080s | 2100 | |
Annual average air temperature | 50˚F | 52.3 - 53.2˚F | 54.5 - 56.2˚F | 55.6 - 59.7˚F | 56.1 - 61.4˚F |
Increase in annual average | - | 2.3 - 3.2˚F | 4.5 - 6.2˚F | 5.6 - 9.7˚F | 6.1 - 11.4˚F |
PRECIPITATION PROJECTIONS FOR REGION 2 |
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Baseline 1971-2000 | 2020s | 2050s | 2080s | 2100 | |
Total annual precipitation | 48" | 48.5" - 52" | 49.5" - 53.5" | 51" - 54.5" | 48.5" - 56.5" |
% Increase in annual precipitation | - | 1 - 8% | 3 - 11% | 6 - 14% | 1 - 18% |
# Days with precipitation > 1" | 12 | 12 - 13 | 13 - 14 | 13 - 15 | * |
# Days with precipitation > 2" | 2 | 2 | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 | * |
PRECIPITATION PROJECTIONS FOR REGION 5 |
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Baseline 1971-2000 | 2020s | 2050s | 2080s | 2100 | |
Total annual precipitation | 51" | 52" - 54.5" | 53" - 57" | 53.5" - 58.5" | 53.5" to 61.5" |
% Increase in annual precipitation | - | 2 - 7% | 4 - 12% | 5 - 15% | 5 - 21% |
# Days with precipitation > 1" | 10 | 14 - 15 | 14 - 16 | 15 - 17 | * |
# Days with precipitation > 2" | 1 | 3 - 4 | 4 | 4 - 5 | * |
HEAT WAVE PROJECTIONS FOR REGION 2 |
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Baseline 1971-2000 | 2020s | 2050s | 2080s | 2100 | |
# Days per year above 90˚F | 12 | 19 - 25 | 31 - 47 | 38 - 77 | * |
# Days per year above 95˚F | 2 | 2 - 5 | 5 - 12 | 7 - 28 | * |
# Heat waves per year | 2 | 3 | 4 - 6 | 5 - 9 | * |
Average # days of each heat wave | 4 | 5 | 5 - 6 | 5 - 7 | * |
# Days per year ≤ 32˚F | 138 | 108 - 116 | 86 - 100 | 65 - 89 | * |
HEAT WAVE PROJECTIONS FOR REGION 5 |
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Baseline 1971-2000 | 2020s | 2050s | 2080s | 2100 | |
# Days per year above 90˚F | 10 | 26 - 31 | 39 - 52 | 44 - 76 | * |
# Days per year above 95˚F | 1 | 2 - 4 | 3 - 10 | 6 - 25 | * |
# Heat waves per year | 1 | 3 - 4 | 5 - 7 | 6 - 9 | * |
Average # days of each heat wave | 4 | 5 | 5 - 6 | 5 - 7 | * |
# Days per year ≤ 32˚F | 155 | 127 - 136 | 104 - 119 | 84 - 109 | * |
SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTIONS FOR THE HUDSON |
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Baseline 1971-2000 | 2020s | 2050s | 2080s | 2100 | |
Mid-Hudson region | - | 1 - 9" | 5 - 27" | 10 - 54" | 11 - 71" |
NYC/Lower Hudson region | - | 2 - 10" | 8 - 30" | 13 - 58" | 15 - 75" |
FLOOD PROJECTIONS FOR COASTAL NY |
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Baseline 1971-2000 | 2020s | 2050s | 2080s | 2100 | |
Increase in probability of 100-year flood | 0% | 20 - 50% | 70 - 190% | 140 - 610% | * |
Flood height of 100-year flood | 15' | 15.3 - 15.7' | 15.9 - 16.8' | 16.5 - 18.3' | * |
*Projections not available at this time
**National Climate Assessment Hayhoe et al., 2018; IPCC, 2014
Please note that the federally-designated “100-year” or 1% floodplain is the area that statistically has a 1% chance of flooding each year, based on historical data. Compounded over a 30-year period, this storm has over a 25%, or one in four chance of happening, so using the term “100-year” storm is misleading and gives a false sense of security.
The projections are taken from Responding to Climate Change in New York State CimAID Report written in 2011 and updated in 2014. New York State officially adopted sea-level rise projections in 2017 for consideration in future planning, permitting and funding programs. You can download a PDF version of these projections and our Climate Summary for Communities to learn more about climate hazards, risks and opportunities Hudson Valley municipalities face.